Understanding migration mobility patterns: elaborating mid and long-term migration scenarios

Global migration is growing in scope, complexity and diversity, which requires better preparedness and responses. A deeper understanding of the drivers of migration and of their interrelation with people’s propensity to migrate is needed as well as projections and scenarios that are essential for appropriate planning and effective policymaking.


Patterns, motivations and modalities of migration should be explored, with a focus on new geographies and temporalities. This may include among others the changing nature of flows and factors such as international demand for and supply of labour, sector policies in countries of origin and destination, aging population in industrialised countries, demographic trends in countries of origin, migration propensity, transnational networks, the impact of corruption, shifting representations of Europe, temporary migration and return (both voluntary and forced) and forced movements linked to conflicts, environment-related threats, other relevant geopolitical factors, international development and regional policies, as well as livelihood opportunities (e.g. inequalities, income levels, poor job opportunities, working conditions, traditional gender roles). The movement of third country nationals among the various regions of the EU should also be analysed. Proposals should capture population estimates and synthesise solid data on gross international migration flows, including towards Europe, in order to identify emerging trends and anticipate future patterns. Proposals should address the gender dimension of international migration and large-scale movements of migrants, including minors unaccompanied and with their families. Proposals should also reappraise assumptions about migration and identify key uncertainties. The involvement of refugee and migrant scholars and scientists from relevant backgrounds and disciplines is strongly encouraged.

The Commission considers that proposals requesting a contribution from the EU in the order of EUR 3 million would allow this specific challenge to be addressed appropriately. Nonetheless, this does not preclude submission and selection of proposals requesting other amounts.

Expected Impact

The action will enhance the knowledge base on migration-related flows, drivers, attitudes and behaviours in qualitative and quantitative terms. Scenarios and projections will inform evidence-based governance and regulatory frameworks at international and EU levels as well as relevant sector policies in EU Member States, e.g. social, health, education and labour market related policies and the impact on welfare policies and public social security systems. The action will also improve statistical data and methods in cooperation with national statistical institutes, relevant organisations and Eurostat.

Cross-cutting Priorities

  • Open Science
  • Socio-economic science and humanities
  • Gender
Application date
Social sciences
Humanities : Anthropology & Ethnology